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Who Predicted 2023? - by Scott Alexander - Astral Codex Ten

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Winners and takeaways from last year's prediction contest

Who Predicted 2023? Winners and takeaways from last year's prediction contest Scott Alexander Mar 05, 2024 139 171 5 Share I. The Annual Forecasting Contest …is one of my favorite parts of this blog. I get a spreadsheet with what are basically takes - “Russia is totally going to win the war this year”, “There’s no way Bitcoin can possibly go down”. Then I do some basic math to it, and I get better takes . There are ways to look at a list of 3300 people’s takes and do math and get a take reliably better than all but a handful of them. Why is this interesting, when a handful of people still beat

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