Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should Stop Funding It — LessWrong
Summary • EA and rationalists got enamoured with forecasting and prediction markets and made them part of the culture, but this hasn’t proven very u…
x Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should Stop Funding It — LessWrong Forecasting & Prediction World Modeling Frontpage 2026 Top Fifty: 20 % 407 Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should Stop Funding It by mabramov 25th Apr 2026 6 min read 96 407 Summary EA and rationalists got enamoured with forecasting and prediction markets and made them part of the culture, but this hasn’t proven very useful, yet it continues to receive substantial EA funding. We should cut it off. My Experience with Forecasting For a while, I was the number one forecaster on Manifold. This lasted for about a year un
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