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🔮 #3 Top Forecaster: "Nothing Ever Happens"

peterwildeford.substack.com · 1,493 words · saved by 1 readers

Inside my award-winning forecasting strategy

What follows is an interview I did on The Oracle. Check out their other interviews with top forecasters here. After the recent Oracle interview1 with Doomberg, I sent a message - I was eager to take the other side on a number of his predictions: The message was from me — Peter Wildeford — the #3 most medaled forecaster on Metaculus, holding the rank of 3 of 17,645. Like “Semi” who went from $286 to over a $1m bankroll on Polymarket, my main strategy is to exploit what I see as a bias towards dramatic headlines. The Oracle spoke with me about how I developed my edge and my takes on a…

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