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How to Predict the Future - by Santi Ruiz - Statecraft

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The decisions that humans make can be extraordinarily costly. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were multi-trillion dollar decisions. If you can improve the accuracy of forecasting individual strategies by just a percentage point, that would be worth tens of billions of dollars. Yet society does not invest tens of billions of dollars in figuring out how to improve the accuracy of human judgment. That seems really odd. That’s a quote from today’s interviewee, who has made his career helping the intelligence community predict the future better. In this interview, we discuss: Which prediction methods perform the best? How does IARPA create tech for American spies? What technologies give democracies an advantage over autocracies? Could the Internet have been designed better? Our interviewee, Jason Matheny, championed research into human judgment and forecasting at the R&D lab for the intelligence community: the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, or IARPA, which he directed fr

How to Predict the Future "We overestimate our ability to keep secrets" Santi Ruiz Nov 08, 2023 34 2 7 Share The decisions that humans make can be extraordinarily costly. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were multi-trillion dollar decisions. If you can improve the accuracy of forecasting individual strategies by just a percentage point, that would be worth tens of billions of dollars. Yet society does not invest tens of billions of dollars in figuring out how to improve the accuracy of human judgment. That seems really odd. That’s a quote from today’s interviewee, who has made his career helpi

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