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What will GPT-2030 look like? — AI Alignment Forum

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GPT-4 surprised many people with its abilities at coding, creative brainstorming, letter-writing, and other skills. Surprises in machine learning are not restricted to GPT-4: I was previously surprised by Minerva’s mathematical abilities, as were many competitive forecasters. How can we be less surprised by developments in machine learning? Our brains often implicitly make a zeroth-order forecast: looking at the current state of the art, and adding on improvements that “feel reasonable”. But what “seems reasonable” is prone to cognitive bias, and will underestimate progress in a fast-moving field like ML. A more effective approach is first-order forecasting: quantifying the historical rate of progress and extrapolating it forward, while also considering reasons for possible slowdowns or speedups.[1] In this post, I’ll use this approach to forecast the properties of large pretrained ML systems in 2030. I’ll refer throughout to “GPT2030”, a hypothetical system that has the capabilities,

x What will GPT-2030 look like? — AI Alignment Forum Forecasts (Specific Predictions) Scaling Laws AI Curated 86 What will GPT-2030 look like? by jsteinhardt 7th Jun 2023 Bounded Regret 28 min read 43 86 GPT-4 surprised many people with its abilities at coding, creative brainstorming, letter-writing, and other skills. Surprises in machine learning are not restricted to GPT-4: I was previously surprised by Minerva’s mathematical abilities, as were many competitive forecasters. How can we be less surprised by developments in machine learning? Our brains often implicitly make a zeroth-order forec

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