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What will GPT-2030 look like?

bounded-regret.ghost.io · 7,089 words · saved by 1 readers

GPT-4 surprised many people with its abilities at coding, creative brainstorming, letter-writing, and other skills. How can we be less surprised by developments in machine learning? In this post, I’ll forecast the properties of large pretrained ML systems in 2030.

GPT-4 surprised many people with its abilities at coding, creative brainstorming, letter-writing, and other skills. Surprises in machine learning are not restricted to GPT-4: I was previously surprised by Minerva’s mathematical abilities, as were many competitive forecasters. How can we be less surprised by developments in machine learning? Our brains often implicitly make a zeroth-order forecast : looking at the current state of the art, and adding on improvements that “feel reasonable”. But what “seems reasonable” is prone to cognitive bias, and will underestimate progress in a fast-moving f

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