✳flâneur — a map of the web's best reading

I. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs - SITUATIONAL AWARENESS

situational-awareness.ai · 10,318 words · saved by 8 readers

AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and “unhobbling” gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027. Look. The models, they just

AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and “unhobbling” gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027. In this piece: Toggle Look. The models, they just want to learn. You have to understand this. The models, they just want to learn. Ilya Sutskever (circa 2015, via Dario Amodei ) GPT-4’s capabilities came as a shock to many: an A

Explore this link on the map →

saved by

related reading