Against AGI Timelines – Ben Landau-Taylor
Some of my friends have strong views on how long it will be until AGI is created. The best arguments on the subject establish that creating a superintelligent AGI is possible, and that such an AGI …
Some of my friends have strong views on how long it will be until AGI is created. The best arguments on the subject establish that creating a superintelligent AGI is possible, and that such an AGI would by default be “unfriendly”, which is a lot worse than it sounds. So far as speculative engineering goes, this is on relatively solid ground. It’s quite possible that as research continues, we’ll learn more about what sorts of intelligence are possible and discover some reason that an AGI can’t actually be built—such discoveries have happened before in the history of science and technology—but…
saved by
related reading
- The Artificial Intelligence Revolution: Part 1 - Wait But Whywaitbutwhy.com
- AI Timelines — LessWronglesswrong.com
- Why do people disagree about when powerful AI will arrive?blog.bluedot.org
- Clarifying and predicting AGI — LessWronglesswrong.com
- Why AGI Will Not Happen - Tim Dettmerstimdettmers.com
- Introduction - SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade Aheadsituational-awareness.ai
- Do confident short timelines make sense? — LessWronglesswrong.com
- What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2026? | 80,000 Hours80000hours.org
- "Long" timelines to advanced AI have gotten crazy shorthelentoner.substack.com
- Views on when AGI comes and on strategy to reduce existential risk — AI Alignment Forumalignmentforum.org
- Why I think strong general AI is coming soon — LessWronglesswrong.com
- Views on when AGI comes and on strategy to reduce existential risk — LessWronglesswrong.com