My AI Opinions - by Scott Alexander - Astral Codex Ten
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My AI Opinions ... Scott Alexander Jun 11, 2026 370 607 36 Share I recently had a minor spat over someone misinterpreting my AI beliefs (see section marked “Update” at the bottom here ), so I thought I would list them in one place, so I can refer people when they ask. Timelines 1 Define AGI as AI intelligent enough to do 90% of knowledge work jobs. I think there’s a 25% chance of AGI by 2027 2 , a 50% chance by 2034, and a 75% chance by 2045. Basic argument: In a certain sense, AI is already “smart” enough for this (eg it can answer quantum physics problems, which require higher IQ than most k
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