The case for multi-decade AI timelines - by Ege Erdil
epochai.substack.com · 2,945 words · saved by 3 readers
In this Gradient Updates weekly issue, Ege discusses the case for multi-decade AI timelines.
The date at which transformative AI capabilities will be reached is among the most discussed questions about AI. Opinions vary widely, with industry insiders typically expecting far faster progress than external observers. For instance, Dario Amodei thinks there might be only 2 to 3 years left until AI surpasses “almost all humans at almost everything”, while economists such as William Nordhaus still believe we might have more than 100 years left. Compared to most people in the world, my own median timelines of ~ 20 years until full automation of remote work would be considered quite…
saved by
related reading
- Thoughts on AI progress (Dec 2025)dwarkesh.com
- AI Timelines — LessWronglesswrong.com
- "Long" timelines to advanced AI have gotten crazy shorthelentoner.substack.com
- Why do people disagree about when powerful AI will arrive?blog.bluedot.org
- Short AI Timelines Aren’t Always Higher-Leverageforethought.org
- AI 2027ai-2027.com
- What's up with Anthropic predicting AGI by early 2027?blog.redwoodresearch.org
- The least understood driver of AI progress | Epoch AIepoch.ai
- The Most Important Time in History Is Now - by Tomas Pueyounchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com
- AI 2027ai-2027.com
- AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besirogludwarkesh.com
- Will scaling work?dwarkeshpatel.com