flâneur

Why do people disagree about when powerful AI will arrive?

blog.bluedot.org · 3,183 words · saved by 3 readers

Few would argue that AI progress over the past few years has not been rapid.

Few would argue that AI progress over the past few years has not been rapid. Large Language Models (LLMs) have provided an unexpected path to increasingly general capabilities. In 2019, OpenAI’s GPT-2 struggled to write a coherent paragraph. In 2025, LLMs write fluent essays, outcompete human experts at graduate-level science questions, and excel at competition mathematics and coding. The most advanced multi-modal AI models now produce images and video that are hard to distinguish from reality. These models are impressive (and useful!) but they still fall short of the north star that…

saved by

related reading