How quick and big would a software intelligence explosion be?

Forethought paper modeling software intelligence explosion: 60% chance of >3 years progress in <1 year.

4th August 2025 [AI Narration] How quick and big would a software intelligence explosion be? Playback speed Volume 0:00 of 1:07:17 AI systems may soon fully automate AI R&D. Eth & Davidson (2025) argues that this could precipitate a software intelligence explosion – a period of rapid AI progress due to AI improving AI software. This paper extends this previous work and evaluates how dramatic the software intelligence explosion will be. How fast will progress become? How much total progress will there be before the intelligence explosion fizzles out? We think that the software…

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• Lydia Nottingham
• Arjun Khandelwal
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related reading

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