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AI Futures Model: Dec 2025 Update

blog.ai-futures.org · 9,049 words · saved by 3 readers

We’ve significantly upgraded our timelines and takeoff models! Our new unified model predicts when AIs will reach key capability milestones: for example, Automated Coder / AC (full automation of coding) and superintelligence / ASI (much better than the best humans at virtually all cognitive tasks). This post will briefly explain how the model works, present our timelines and takeoff forecasts, and compare it to our previous (AI 2027) models (spoiler: the AI Futures Model predicts about 3 years longer timelines to full coding automation than our previous model, mostly due to being less bullish on pre-full-automation AI R&D speedups). If you’re interested in playing with the model yourself, the best way to do so is via this interactive website: aifuturesmodel.com If you’d like to skip over the motivation for our model to an explanation for how it works, go here, The website has a more in-depth explanation of the model (starts here; use the diagram on the right as a table of contents), as

We’ve significantly upgraded our timelines and takeoff model! Our new unified model predicts when AIs will reach key capability milestones: for example, Automated Coder / AC (full automation of coding) and superintelligence / ASI (much better than the best humans at virtually all cognitive tasks). This post will briefly explain how the model works, present our timelines and takeoff forecasts, and compare it to our previous (AI 2027) models (spoiler: the AI Futures Model predicts longer timelines to full coding automation than our previous model by about 3-5 years, in significant part due to…

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