Full automation of AI R&D probably yields a large speed up even without a software-only singularity

Full automation likely yields a one-time speed-up and higher returns from compute

This is a somewhat technical note. By “software-only singularity”, I mean that, after full automation of AI R&D, progress gets faster and faster due to smarter AIs driving increasingly fast rates of improvement in algorithms (overcoming diminishing returns), and that this lasts long enough to yield a large amount of progress (e.g. at least 4 years of progress in 1 year). The equivalent statement in jargon is: r is significantly greater than 1 (implying progress is getting faster and faster) and this remains the case for long enough to get large amounts of progress. For context, see How…

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• Carolyn Qian

related reading

• Will AI R&D Automation Cause a Software Intelligence Explosion?forethought.org
• Six milestones for AI automation - by Ajeya Cotraplanned-obsolescence.org
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• II. From AGI to Superintelligence: the Intelligence Explosion - SITUATIONAL AWARENESSsituational-awareness.ai
• Do the returns to software R&D point towards a singularity? | Epoch AIepochai.org
• When AI builds itself \ Anthropicanthropic.com
• Will Compute Bottlenecks Prevent a Software Intelligence Explosion?forethought.org
• The software intelligence explosion debate needs experiments | Epoch AIepoch.ai
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• An Apple-Picking Model of AI R&D | Tom Cunningham – Tom Cunninghamtecunningham.github.io