Why we can't take expected value estimates literally (even when they're unbiased) - The GiveWell Blog

While some people feel that GiveWell puts too much emphasis on the measurable and quantifiable, there are others who go further than we do in

This post is more than 14 years old While some people feel that GiveWell puts too much emphasis on the measurable and quantifiable, there are others who go further than we do in quantification, and justify their giving (or other) decisions based on fully explicit expected-value formulas. The latter group tends to critique us – or at least disagree with us – based on our preference for strong evidence over high apparent “expected value,” and based on the heavy role of non-formalized intuition in our decisionmaking. This post is directed at the latter group. We believe th

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