Expected value: how can we make a difference when we're uncertain what’s true? | 80,000 Hours

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A brief introduction to what expected value is, how we can use it to work out what's best to do, and some of the main objections to it.

By Benjamin Todd · Last updated April 2023 · First published September 2021 · Table of Contents 1 What is expected value? 2 Why use expected value? 3 Expected value is a theoretical ideal, not a practical methodology 4 Is expected value all that matters? 5 Expected value and risk 6 Objections to using expected value even in principle 7 Learn more 7.1 Join our newsletter and we’ll mail you a free book If someone offered you a free beer, but told you there’s a 1% chance it contains poison, you wouldn’t drink it. That’s because the badness of drinking poison far outweighs the goodness…

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Expected value: how can we make a difference when we're uncertain what’s true? | 80,000 Hours

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