Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) — LessWrong

Note: I am cross-posting this GiveWell Blog post, after consulting a couple of community members, because it is relevant to many topics discussed on…

x Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) — LessWrong Bayes' Theorem Effective altruism Probability & Statistics Frontpage 123 Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) by HoldenKarnofsky 18th Aug 2011 20 min read 253 123 Note: I am cross-posting this GiveWell Blog post, after consulting a couple of community members, because it is relevant to many topics discussed on Less Wrong, particularly efficient charity / optimal philanthropy and Pascal's Mugging . The post includes a proposed "solution" to the dilemma pos

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