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Grading Extropian Predictions - by Maxwell Tabarrok

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How well do futurists predict the future?

The Extropians are a group of techno-optimist libertarian futurists, most active in the late 90s. Although a relatively small group, they are still influential thanks to their extremely high per capita rate of important members. Eliezer Yudkowsky, Nick Bostrom, Robin Hanson, all three of the likely candidates for Satoshi Nakamoto (Hal Finney, Wei Dai, and Nick Szabo), Eric Drexler, and Marvin Minsky were all Extropians. If you want to learn more about this group and the people in it, check out my website on Extropian Archaeology where I do a deep dive into the archives of primary sources and…

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