near-term-xpt-accuracy.pdf
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Assessing Near-Term Accuracy in the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament Authors: Simas Kučinskas, Josh Rosenberg, Rebecca Ceppas de Castro, Zach Jacobs, Jordan Canedy, Philip E. Tetlock, Ezra Karger First released on: September 2, 2025 Assessing Near-Term Accuracy in the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament Authors: Simas Kučinskas1*, Josh Rosenberg1, Rebecca Ceppas de Castro1, Zach Jacobs1, Jordan Canedy1, Philip E. Tetlock1,2, Ezra Karger1,3 Abstract In June–October 2022, we convened 169 people to participate in the “Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament” (XPT). The XPT…
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