near-term-xpt-accuracy.pdf
static1.squarespace.com · 7,111 words · saved by 1 readers
N/A
Assessing Near-Term Accuracy in the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament Authors: Simas Kučinskas, Josh Rosenberg, Rebecca Ceppas de Castro, Zach Jacobs, Jordan Canedy, Philip E. Tetlock, Ezra Karger First released on: September 2, 2025 Assessing Near-Term Accuracy in the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament Authors: Simas Kučinskas1*, Josh Rosenberg1, Rebecca Ceppas de Castro1, Zach Jacobs1, Jordan Canedy1, Philip E. Tetlock1,2, Ezra Karger1,3 Abstract In June–October 2022, we convened 169 people to participate in the “Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament” (XPT). The XPT…
saved by
related reading
- The AI Superforecasters Are Here - by Scott Alexanderastralcodexten.com
- Futurist prediction methods and accuracydanluu.com
- Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Future? - The Atlantictheatlantic.com
- How a ragtag band of internet friends became the best at forecasting world eventsvox.com
- How to Predict the Future - by Santi Ruiz - Statecraftstatecraft.pub
- You will be OK — LessWronglesswrong.com
- LLMs Are Closing the Gap on Human Superforecasterssubstack.com
- Where I agree and disagree with Eliezer — LessWronglesswrong.com
- AI existential risk probabilities are too unreliable to inform policynormaltech.ai
- Existential Risk from AI: An Exposition for Mathematiciansalkjash.github.io
- Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox (Ep. 93) | Conversations with Tylerconversationswithtyler.com
- Who Predicted 2023? - by Scott Alexander - Astral Codex Tenastralcodexten.com