Samotsvety track record

As of 2022-09-15, we are also 4th on the nascent Insight Prediction leaderboard as a result of one (1) large bet when we correctly foresaw the Russian invasion of Ukraine and put our money where our mouth was: Individually, Samotsvety members are, as of 2022-09-15, occupying all top 4 spots on INFER’s overall leaderboard: For each forecaster below, the time at which their profile was last updated is indicated in a superscript.

Team achievements The Samotsvety Forecasting team at INFER/CSET-Foretell—composed out of Nuño, Misha, Eli—took: 1st place in 2020 , with a relative score of -0.912 (vs. -0.062 by the 2nd best team). Individually we finished 5th, 6th, and 7th . 1st place in 2021 with a relative score of -3.259 (vs. -0.889 by the 2nd best team and vs. -0.267 by “Pro Forecasters”). Individually we finished 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th . We still hold 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th places in INFER's all time ranking. We still hold 1st place in 2022 , despite us reducing our participation. A few of our forecasters have now become Sup

related reading

• How a ragtag band of internet friends became the best at forecasting world eventsvox.com
• Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Future? - The Atlantictheatlantic.com
• Who Predicted 2023? - by Scott Alexander - Astral Codex Tenastralcodexten.com
• Futurist prediction methods and accuracydanluu.com
• Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox (Ep. 93) | Conversations with Tylerconversationswithtyler.com
• Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecastersarxiv.org
• 🔮 #3 Top Forecaster: "Nothing Ever Happens"peterwildeford.substack.com
• Edge Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class I | Edge.orgedge.org
• CAIS AI Dashboarddashboard.safe.ai
• Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should Stop Funding It — LessWronglesswrong.com
• Forecasting & Prediction — LessWronglesswrong.com
• Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Mostarxiv.org