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Evaluating “What 2026 Looks Like” So Far — LessWrong

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Summary In 2021, @Daniel Kokotajlo wrote What 2026 Looks Like, in which he sketched a possible version of each year from 2022 - 2026. In his words: …

x Evaluating “What 2026 Looks Like” So Far — LessWrong Forecasts (Specific Predictions) Postmortems & Retrospectives AI Timelines Forecasting & Prediction AI Frontpage 79 Evaluating “What 2026 Looks Like” So Far by Jonny Spicer 24th Feb 2025 8 min read 7 79 Summary In 2021, @Daniel Kokotajlo wrote What 2026 Looks Like , in which he sketched a possible version of each year from 2022 - 2026. In his words: The goal is to write out a detailed future history (“trajectory”) that is as realistic (to [him]) as [he] can currently manage Given it’s now 2025, I evaluated all of the predictions contained

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