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AI predictions for 2026 - by Ajeya Cotra

planned-obsolescence.org · 2,498 words · saved by 1 readers

But first, scoring my predictions for 2025

AI predictions for 2026 But first, scoring my predictions for 2025 Ajeya Cotra Jan 14, 2026 68 6 4 Share On December 13th, 2024, I registered predictions about what would happen with AI by the end of 2025, using this survey run by Sage . They asked five questions about benchmarks, four about the OpenAI Preparedness Framework risk categories, one about revenues, and one about public salience of AI. The Sage team has updated the survey with the resolutions, so I went through and looked back at what I said. Overall, I was somewhat too bullish about benchmarks scores and much too bearish about AI

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