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What 2026 looks like — AI Alignment Forum

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Daniel Kokotajlo presents his best attempt at a concrete, detailed guess of what 2022 through 2026 will look like, as an exercise in forecasting. It…

x What 2026 looks like — AI Alignment Forum Takeoff and Takeover in the Past and Future AI Timelines Forecasting & Prediction Forecasts (Specific Predictions) AI Persuasion AI Takeoff Fuzzies AI Curated 128 What 2026 looks like by Daniel Kokotajlo 6th Aug 2021 20 min read 174 128 This was written for the Vignettes Workshop . [1] The goal is to write out a detailed future history (“trajectory”) that is as realistic (to me) as I can currently manage, i.e. I’m not aware of any alternative trajectory that is similarly detailed and clearly more plausible to me. The methodology is roughly: Write a f

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