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How well did forecasters predict 2025 AI progress? | Epoch AI

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Mostly right about benchmarks, mixed results on real-world impacts

How well did forecasters predict 2025 AI progress? | Epoch AI Gradient Updates shares more opinionated or informal takes on big questions in AI progress. These posts solely represent the views of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Epoch AI as a whole. This post was written in collaboration between the AI Futures Project, the AI Digest, and Epoch AI. It analyzes the results of the 2025 AI Digest survey . You can take the 2026 AI forecasting survey here . Every other AI paper I read seems to start with some version of “AI progress has been fast”. And sure, that’s obviously

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