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What 2026 looks like - LessWrong

lesswrong.com · 20,654 words · saved by 6 readers

Daniel Kokotajlo presents his best attempt at a concrete, detailed guess of what 2022 through 2026 will look like, as an exercise in forecasting. It…

x What 2026 looks like — LessWrong AI Timelines AI Timelines Forecasting & Prediction Forecasts (Specific Predictions) AI Persuasion AI Takeoff Fuzzies AI Curated 628 What 2026 looks like by Daniel Kokotajlo 6th Aug 2021 AI Alignment Forum 20 min read 174 628 Ω 127 This was written for the Vignettes Workshop . [1] The goal is to write out a detailed future history (“trajectory”) that is as realistic (to me) as I can currently manage, i.e. I’m not aware of any alternative trajectory that is similarly detailed and clearly more plausible to me. The methodology is roughly: Write a future history o

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