Everything is Prediction - by Keith Dear - Cassi AI
blog.cassi-ai.com · 2,151 words · saved by 1 readers
From Ramsey to Yudkowsky, the case for making our bets explicit.
Everything is Prediction, Everything we do is a wager on what comes next. Reading this is a bet that it will repay your time. Reaching for a coffee mug assumes it contains coffee. Strategy, policy, all decisions, even routine admin, each is an “if…then” about the future. The only real choice is whether to keep those bets tacit and unexamined, or to state them, price them, and improve them. That is why “we don’t do prediction” is the most misleading sentence in public life. Historians sometimes say it, central bankers occasionally imply it, ministers often hide behind it. Even explanation…
saved by
related reading
- Prediction Centric Warfare - by Keith Dear - Cassi AIblog.cassi-ai.com
- The Illusion of Knowledgeoaktreecapital.com
- Futurist prediction methods and accuracydanluu.com
- Thinking in Predictions — LessWronglesswrong.com
- How to Predict the Future - by Santi Ruiz - Statecraftstatecraft.pub
- Forecasting & Prediction — LessWronglesswrong.com
- Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences) — LessWronglesswrong.com
- Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should Stop Funding It — LessWronglesswrong.com
- Are Prediction Markets Good for Anything?—Asteriskasteriskmag.com
- Why Deterministic Thinking Breaks Down in Business — And How We Keep Fooling Ourselves Into Believing It Workslinkedin.com
- Predicting our own demise | Reducible Errorsreducibleerrors.com
- How a ragtag band of internet friends became the best at forecasting world eventsvox.com