Predicting our own demise | Reducible Errors
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Creating society-destabilizing incentives for fun and profit!
Predicting our own demise Creating society-destabilizing incentives for fun and profit! August 17, 2025 Prediction markets are having a moment. Polymarket daily volumes are around $30 million. Kalshi is around the same, and recently raised a funding round at a valuation of $2 billion. On the regulatory front, the SEC and CFTC seem to have given up trying to limit Kalshi's transformation into a sport-betting powerhouse, making a mockery of state-level regulations on sports gambling. Indeed, prediction markets are ascendant. So is gambling in general. The world is long degeneracy . And what's no
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