Six milestones for AI automation - by Ajeya Cotra

What can AI do on its own, and how well?

Six milestones for AI automation What can AI do on its own, and how well? Ajeya Cotra Apr 03, 2026 91 46 10 Share The closer you think you are to your “powerful AI” milestone of choice, the more important it becomes to define it precisely. If your timelines are in the few-year range, changing the particular definition of powerful AI can easily double or triple your median forecast. Take my definition of “full automation of AI R&D” from my predictions post earlier this year: [F]or whichever AI company is in the lead [at the relevant point in time], if you fired all its members of technical staf

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