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Once AI Research is Automated, Will AI Progress Accelerate?

forethought.org · 2,293 words · saved by 1 readers

Today, AI progress is driven by humans, and the rate of progress is roughly constant over time. But once AI itself drives AI progress, this feedback loop could cause the rate of AI progress to accelerate, getting faster and faster over time. In this piece, we explain the conditions under which progress accelerates, and then evaluate whether these conditions hold for three feedback loops by which AI will improve AI: software, chip technology, and chip production. Setting human constraints aside, we argue that software might sustain accelerating progress, chip technology is likely to , and chip production is very likely to sustain accelerating progress. Overall AI progress is even more likely to accelerate, as it can involve all three feedback loops.

Once AI Research is Automated, Will AI Progress Accelerate? Tom Davidson Rose Hadshar William MacAskill Authors Citations Cite Citations PDF Contact 17th March 2025 Once AI Research is Automated, Will AI Progress Accelerate? Under what conditions does progress accelerate? Will AI progress accelerate? Software feedback loop Chip technology feedback loop Chip production feedback loop Will intelligence explosions accelerate? [AI Narration] Once AI Research is Automated, Will AI Progress Accelerate? Playback speed 0.5 × 0.75 × 1 × 1.25 × 1.5 × 1.75 × 2 × Volume 0:00 of 16:37 0:00 | 16:37 This is a

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