AI Timelines via Cumulative Optimization Power: Less Long, More Short - LessWrong
TLDR: We can best predict the future by using simple models which best postdict the past (ala Bayes/Solomonoff). A simple model based on net training compute postdicts the relative performance of suc…
x AI Timelines via Cumulative Optimization Power: Less Long, More Short — LessWrong AI Timelines Economic Consequences of AGI Future Fund Worldview Prize Futurism Technological Forecasting AI Frontpage 138 AI Timelines via Cumulative Optimization Power: Less Long, More Short by jacob_cannell 6th Oct 2022 7 min read 33 138 TLDR : We can best predict the future by using simple models which best postdict the past (ala Bayes/Solomonoff). A simple model based on net training compute postdicts the relative performance of successful biological and artificial neural networks. Extrapolation of this mod
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