I. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs - SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and “unhobbling” gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027. Look. The models, they just
AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and “unhobbling” gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027. In this piece: Toggle Look. The models, they just want to learn. You have to understand this. The models, they just want to learn. Ilya Sutskever (circa 2015, via Dario Amodei ) GPT-4’s capabilities came as a shock to many: an A
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related reading
- II. From AGI to Superintelligence: the Intelligence Explosion - SITUATIONAL AWARENESSsituational-awareness.ai
- AI 2027ai-2027.com
- Will scaling work?dwarkeshpatel.com
- AI 2027ai-2027.com
- What will GPT-2030 look like? — AI Alignment Forumalignmentforum.org
- AI progress is about to speed up | Epoch AIepoch.ai
- How fast is AI improving? - AI Digesttheaidigest.org
- AI 2027ai-2027.com
- My picture of the present in AI — LessWronglesswrong.com
- The Extreme Inefficiency of RL for Frontier Models - Toby Ordtobyord.com
- My Takeaways From AI 2027astralcodexten.com
- AI in 2025: gestalt — LessWronglesswrong.com