Short AI Timelines Aren’t Always Higher-Leverage
forethought.org · 6,335 words · saved by 3 readers
Are 2–10 year AGI timelines really highest leverage? We compare 2027/2035/2045 scenarios and explain when medium timelines can offer higher-impact.
Short Timelines Aren't Obviously Higher-Leverage William MacAskill Mia Taylor Citations Cite Citations PDF Contact 22nd January 2026 Short Timelines Aren't Obviously Higher-Leverage Summary Timelines scenarios and why they’re action-relevant Understanding leverage Takeover impact The default value of the future is higher on medium timelines than short or long timelines Shorter timelines allow for larger AI takeover risk reduction Whether short or medium timelines are highest leverage depends on the resources or skillset being deployed Trajectory impact The default probability of averting AI ta
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