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AGI is Still 30 Years Away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

dwarkesh.com · 33,592 words · saved by 3 readers

Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu have 2045+ timelines, think the whole "alignment" framing is wrong, don't think an intelligence explosion is plausible, but are convinced we'll see explosive economic growth. This discussion offers a totally different scenario than my recent interview with Scott and Daniel. Ege and Tamay are the co-founders of Mechanize (disclosure - I’m an angel investor), a startup dedicated to fully automating work. Before founding Mechanize, Ege and Tamay worked on AI forecasts at Epoch AI. Watch on Youtube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. WorkOS makes it easy to become enterprise-ready. With simple APIs for essential enterprise features like SSO and SCIM, WorkOS helps companies like Vercel, Plaid, and OpenAI meet the requirements of their biggest customers. To learn more about how they can help you do the same, visit workos.com Scale’s Data Foundry gives major AI labs access to high-quality data to fuel post-training, including advanced reasoning capabilities. If

Playback speed × Share post Share post at current time Share from 0:00 0:00 / Generate transcript A transcript unlocks clips, previews, and editing. 104 6 17 AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu The economy will literally double every year afterwards Dwarkesh Patel Apr 17, 2025 104 6 17 Share Transcript Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu have 2045+ timelines, think the whole "alignment" framing is wrong, don't think an intelligence explosion is plausible, but are convinced we'll see explosive economic growth. This discussion offers a totally different scenario than my recent int

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