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Where’s my ten minute AGI? - by Anson Ho - Epoch AI

epochai.substack.com · 2,378 words · saved by 1 readers

Why don’t AIs automate more real-world tasks if they can handle 1-hour ones? Here are at least three fundamental reasons.

Recently, METR released a paper arguing that the length of tasks that AIs can do is doubling every 7 months. We can see this in the following graph, where the best AI system1 is able to do roughly hour-long tasks at a 50% success rate on average: METR’s research finds that AIs are rapidly able to do longer and longer tasks, where length is measured by the time it takes for a human with requisite expertise to do the task. But there’s a big problem here – if AIs are actually able to perform most tasks on 1-hour task horizons, why don’t we see more real-world task automation? For example,…

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