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Hurtling through 2026 - by Ajeya Cotra

planned-obsolescence.org · 1,898 words · saved by 1 readers

Scoring ten qualitative forecasts five months early

In mid-January, I made predictions about AI capabilities for the year 2026. By early March, my forecast of the 50% time horizon on software tasks already seemed clearly too conservative. And then a couple weeks ago, amid the flurry of news about dozens of esoteric theorems falling to AI, I decided that my prediction that AIs wouldn’t be able to get a paper into a top math journal had now clearly fallen. As it turns out, this was a bit more ambiguous than I assumed (as I’ll discuss below), but it prompted me to revisit all my qualitative predictions from that post. I posted a quick thread to…

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