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AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the "Experts," Stand

cold-takes.com · 3,251 words · saved by 1 readers

What the best available forecasting methods say - and why there's no "expert field" for this topic.

Audio also available by searching Stitcher, Spotify, Google Podcasts, etc. for "Cold Takes Audio" --> This piece starts with a summary of when we should expect transformative AI to be developed, based on the multiple angles covered previously in the series. I think this is useful, even if you've read all of the previous pieces, but if you'd like to skip it, click here . I then address the question: "Why isn't there a robust expert consensus on this topic, and what does that mean for us?" I estimate that there is more than a 10% chance we'll see transformative AI within 15 years (by 2036); a ~5

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