Forecasting transformative AI: the "biological anchors" method in a nutshell

My preferred method of forecasting transformative AI, with pros and cons.

Audio also available by searching Stitcher, Spotify, Google Podcasts, etc. for "Cold Takes Audio" --> This is one of 4 posts summarizing hundreds of pages of technical reports focused almost entirely on forecasting one number: the year by which transformative AI will be developed. 1 By "transformative AI," I mean "AI powerful enough to bring us into a new, qualitatively different future." I specifically focus on what I'm calling PASTA : AI systems that can essentially automate all of the human activities needed to speed up scientific and technological advancement. The sooner PASTA might be dev

saved by

• Klaudia U.
• Micah Carroll
• Ratan Kaliani

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