✳flâneur — a map of the web's best reading

Two-year update on my personal AI timelines - LessWrong

lesswrong.com · 12,732 words · saved by 1 readers

I worked on mydraft report on biological anchors for forecasting AI timelines mainly between ~May 2019 (three months after the release of GPT-2) and ~Jul 2020 (a month after the release of GPT-3), an…

x Two-year update on my personal AI timelines — LessWrong AI Timelines AI Frontpage 294 Two-year update on my personal AI timelines by Ajeya Cotra 2nd Aug 2022 AI Alignment Forum 19 min read 60 294 Ω 104 I worked on my draft report on biological anchors for forecasting AI timelines mainly between ~May 2019 (three months after the release of GPT-2) and ~Jul 2020 (a month after the release of GPT-3), and posted it on LessWrong in Sep 2020 after an internal review process. At the time, my bottom line estimates from the bio anchors modeling exercise were : [1] Roughly ~15% probability of transform

Explore this link on the map →

related reading