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"Long" timelines to advanced AI have gotten crazy short

helentoner.substack.com · 1,595 words · saved by 3 readers

The prospect of reaching human-level AI in the 2030s should be jarring

"Long" timelines to advanced AI have gotten crazy short The prospect of reaching human-level AI in the 2030s should be jarring Helen Toner Apr 01, 2025 172 21 21 Share Welcome to Rising Tide! I’m publishing 3 posts this week to celebrate the launch of this Substack—this is post #1. New posts will be more intermittent after this week. Subscribe to get them straight in your inbox: Subscribe Source It used to be a bold claim, requiring strong evidence, to argue that we might see anything like human-level AI any time in the first half of the 21st century. This 2016 post , for instance, spends 8,50

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