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Broad Timelines — EA Forum

forum.effectivealtruism.org · 446 words · saved by 1 readers

We should have neither short nor long AI timelines, but a very broad probability distribution over when transformative AI will arrive. I explore the implications of this deep uncertainty.

Ryan Greenblatt 4mo 40 6 2 I agree with many particular points in this post and the apparent thesis [1] , but also think most people [2] should focus on short timelines (contrary to the apparent implication of the post). The reasons why are: Short timelines have more leverage. This isn't just because of more neglectedness now, but also because: (1) it's easier to target approaches towards shorter timelines where less has changed, (2) short timelines are riskier (and I think riskier worlds are more leveraged for most interventions, this is sensitive to my views on risk and the most leveraged in

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