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Do confident short timelines make sense? — LessWrong

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Some context: My personal context is that I care about decreasing existential risk, and I think that the broad distribution of efforts put forward by X-deriskers fairly strongly overemphasizes plans that help if AGI is coming in <10 years, at the expense of plans that help if AGI takes longer. So I want to argue that AGI isn't extremely likely to come in <10 years. I've argued against some intuitions behind AGI-soon in Views on when AGI comes and on strategy to reduce existential risk. Abram, IIUC, largely agrees with the picture painted in AI 2027: https://ai-2027.com/ Abram and I have discussed this occasionally, and recently recorded a video call. I messed up my recording, sorry--so the last third of the conversation is cut off, and the beginning is cut off. Here's a link to the first point at which you can actually hear Abram: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YU8N52ZWXxQ&t=806s I left the conversation somewhat unsatisfied, mainly because I still don't feel I understand how ot

x Do confident short timelines make sense? — LessWrong AI Timelines AI Frontpage 2025 Top Fifty: 20 % 139 Do confident short timelines make sense? by TsviBT , abramdemski 15th Jul 2025 83 min read 78 139 TsviBT Tsvi's context Some context: My personal context is that I care about decreasing existential risk, and I think that the broad distribution of efforts put forward by X-deriskers fairly strongly overemphasizes plans that help if AGI is coming in <10 years, at the expense of plans that help if AGI takes longer. So I want to argue that AGI isn't extremely likely to come in <10 years. I've a

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