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When is the future the same as the past? - by Ben Recht

argmin.net · 940 words · saved by 1 readers

Before we can make a prediction interval, we need to convince ourselves that prediction is possible. What data can we collect about the past to predict the future? We clearly need a model before we can do anything. Conventional wisdom suggests that counts of the past can be converted into probabilities of the future. 16 out of 100 die rolls landed on a 6. Therefore, my chance of rolling a 6 with this die is 16%. Steph Curry has made 257 of his 281 free throws this season. Therefore, the probability he’ll make a free throw in tomorrow’s game is 92%. 70 out of the 127 2-point attempts in football last year were successful. Therefore, the probability of converting the next 2-point conversion is 55%. It rained in the morning three out of the last five days. Therefore, the probability it will rain this morning is 60%. In clinical trials, 900 of the 1300 people who took Ozempic lost over 10% of their body weight in 5 years. Therefore, I have a 70% chance of losing over 10% of my body weight

Before we can make a prediction interval, we need to convince ourselves that prediction is possible. What data can we collect about the past to predict the future? We clearly need a model before we can do anything. Conventional wisdom suggests that counts of the past can be converted into probabilities of the future. 16 out of 100 die rolls landed on a 6. Therefore, my chance of rolling a 6 with this die is 16%. Steph Curry has made 257 of his 281 free throws this season. Therefore, the probability he’ll make a free throw in tomorrow’s game is 92%. 70 out of the 127 2-point attempts in…

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