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METR's 14h 50% Horizon Impacts The Economy More Than ASI Timelines — LessWrong

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Another day, another METR graph update. • METR said on X: …

x METR's 14h 50% Horizon Impacts The Economy More Than ASI Timelines — LessWrong AI World Modeling Frontpage 45 METR's 14h 50% Horizon Impacts The Economy More Than ASI Timelines by Michaël Trazzi 20th Feb 2026 2 min read 11 45 Another day, another METR graph update. METR said on X: We estimate that Claude Opus 4.6 has a 50%-time-horizon of around 14.5 hours (95% CI of 6 hrs to 98 hrs) on software tasks. While this is the highest point estimate we’ve reported, this measurement is extremely noisy because our current task suite is nearly saturated. Some people are saying this makes superexponent

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