A Professional Superforecaster Walks Us Through His AI Progress Forecasts
In our AI progress forecasting panel, we posed questions on when AI would help solve a Millennium Prize Problem and the rise of autonomous vehicles. Here's how a superforecaster made his predictions.
In November, FRI announced the first results from our Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP)—a project that collects forecasts on the future of AI from over 330 top computer scientists, AI industry experts, economists, and policy specialists. The LEAP panel also includes 60 superforecasters with a track record of highly accurate predictions in prior geopolitical forecasting tournaments. These superforecasters come from two places: (1) the original IARPA ACE tournament, where LEAP coauthor Phil Tetlock and collaborators called the top two percent of forecasters by accuracy “superforecasters”;…
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