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When pooling forecasts, use the geometric mean of odds — EA Forum

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In short: There are many methods to pool forecasts. The most commonly used is the arithmetic mean of probabilities. However, there are empirical and…

When pooling forecasts, use the geometric mean of odds — EA Forum Hide table of contents Aggregating Forecasts When pooling forecasts, use the geometric mean of odds by Jaime Sevilla Sep 3 2021 10 min read 63 125 Forecasting Statistics Frontpage When pooling forecasts, use the geometric mean of odds The (extremized) geometric mean of odds empirically results in more accurate predictions The geometric mean of odds satisfies external Bayesianity The arithmetic mean of probabilities ignores information from extreme predictions Do the differences between geometric mean of odds and arithmetic mean

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