Injecting some numbers into the AGI debate – Windows On Theory
[Yet another “philosophizing” post, but one with some actual numbers. –Boaz] Recently there have been many debates on “artificial general intelligence” (AGI) and whether or not we…
[Yet another “philosophizing” post, but one with some actual numbers. See also this follow up . –Boaz] Recently there have been many debates on “artificial general intelligence” (AGI) and whether or not we are close to achieving it by scaling up our current AI systems. In this post, I’d like to make this debate a bit more quantitative by trying to understand what “scaling” would entail. The calculations are very rough – think of a post-it that is stuck on the back of an envelope. But I hope that this can be at least a starting point for making these questions more concr
related reading
- Will scaling work?dwarkeshpatel.com
- Why AGI Will Not Happen - Tim Dettmerstimdettmers.com
- II. From AGI to Superintelligence: the Intelligence Explosion - SITUATIONAL AWARENESSsituational-awareness.ai
- I. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs - SITUATIONAL AWARENESSsituational-awareness.ai
- The Artificial Intelligence Revolution: Part 2 - Wait But Whywaitbutwhy.com
- Artificial General Intelligence and how (much) to worry about itstrangeloopcanon.com
- Will scaling work? - by Dwarkesh Patel - Dwarkesh Podcastdwarkesh.com
- The Three AI Pillsthezvi.substack.com
- Artificial General Intelligence Is Already Herenoemamag.com
- Clarifying and predicting AGI — LessWronglesswrong.com
- AI will change the world, but won’t take it over by playing “3-dimensional chess”. – Windows On Theorywindowsontheory.org
- Why do people disagree about when powerful AI will arrive?blog.bluedot.org