flâneur

AGI Trades

dcgross.com · 377 words · saved by 4 readers

I think we can all agree that GPT-4 completes many tasks at human-level proficiency. It is imperfect in odd ways -- it can write software like a smart MIT undergrad, but can't do basic task planning like an entry-level EA. It speaks all languages, but can barely do math. Suppose the progress doesn't stop, just like GPT-4 was better than 3, GPT-5 is capable of basic agentic behavior -- i.e. able to accept a task, work on it for a while, and return results. Some modest fraction of Upwork tasks can now be done with a handful of electrons. Suppose everyone has an agent like this they can hire. Suppose everyone has 1,000 agents like this they can hire... What does one do in a world like this? What do you long or short? Markets Real-estate Energy and datacenter Nations Inflation Geopolitics

January 14, 2024 I think we can all agree that GPT-4 completes many tasks at human-level proficiency. It is imperfect in odd ways -- it can write software like a smart MIT undergrad, but can't do basic task planning like an entry-level EA. It speaks all languages, but can barely do math. Suppose the progress doesn't stop, just like GPT-4 was better than 3, GPT-5 is capable of basic agentic behavior -- i.e. able to accept a task, work on it for a while, and return results. Some modest fraction of Upwork tasks can now be done with a handful of electrons. Suppose everyone has an agent like…

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