Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox (Ep. 93) | Conversations with Tyler

conversationswithtyler.com · 9,633 words · saved by 1 readers

Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. People also look to forecasters for ideological assurance, entertainment, and to minimize regret–such as that caused by not taking a global pandemic seriously enough. The best forecasters aren’t just intelligent, but fox-like integrative thinkers capable of navigating values that are conflicting or in tension. He joined Tyler to discuss whether the world as a whole is becoming harder to predict, whether Goldman Sachs traders can beat forecasters, what inferences we can draw from analyzing the speech of politicians, the importance of interdisciplinary teams, the qualities he looks for in leaders, the reasons he’s skeptical machine learning will outcompete his research team, the year he thinks the ascent of the West became inevitable, how research on counterfactuals can be applied to modern de

Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox (Ep. 93) | Conversations with Tyler April 22, 2020 Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox (Ep. 93) Is accuracy really what we want from forecasters? Subscribe Apple Google Stitcher Spotify YouTube You may also like: Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction . People also look to forecasters for ideological assurance, entertainment, and to minimize regret–such as that caus

Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox (Ep. 93) | Conversations with Tyler

related reading