basilhalperin.com/papers/agi_emh.pdf
basilhalperin.com · 8,021 words · saved by 1 readers
N/A
Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates* Trevor Chow † Basil Halperin ‡ J. Zachary Mazlish § June 2026 Abstract We study how financial market prices can be used to forecast the likelihood of transformative artificial intelligence. Transformative AI is a double-edged sword: while advanced AI could lead to rapid economic growth, some researchers argue that superintelligence misaligned with…
saved by
related reading
- AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years — Basil Halperinbasilhalperin.com
- Forecasts of AI & Economic Growth | Tom Cunningham – Tom Cunninghamtecunningham.github.io
- Existential_Risk_and_Growth.pdfphiliptrammell.com
- THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIScitriniresearch.com
- Economics and Transformative AI | Tom Cunningham – Tom Cunninghamtecunningham.github.io
- Why transformative artificial intelligence is really, really hard to achievethegradient.pub
- w31815.pdfnber.org
- rsi-paper.pdfelasticity.institute
- AK or just okay? AI and economic growthjzmazlish.substack.com
- The AI Industrial Explosion — Part 1: Maximum growth rates with current production methodsdefensesindepth.bio
- Short AI Timelines Aren’t Always Higher-Leverageforethought.org
- Existential Risk from AI: An Exposition for Mathematiciansalkjash.github.io