basilhalperin.com/papers/agi_emh.pdf
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Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates* Trevor Chow † Basil Halperin ‡ J. Zachary Mazlish § June 2026 Abstract We study how financial market prices can be used to forecast the likelihood of transformative artificial intelligence. Transformative AI is a double-edged sword: while advanced AI could lead to rapid economic growth, some researchers argue that superintelligence misaligned with…
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