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A (Slightly) Mechanistic Theory for Exponentially Increasing AI Time Horizons? — LessWrong

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AI ‘time horizons’ are mostly not about time (I think it’s mostly ‘data’, but you’ll see where I’m unsure). …

x A (Slightly) Mechanistic Theory for Exponentially Increasing AI Time Horizons? — LessWrong AI Takeoff Forecasts (Specific Predictions) Intelligence explosion AI Frontpage 50 A (Slightly) Mechanistic Theory for Exponentially Increasing AI Time Horizons? by Oliver Sourbut 24th May 2026 Linkpost for www.oliversourbut.net 10 min read 17 50 AI ‘time horizons’ are mostly not about time (I think it’s mostly ‘data’, but you’ll see where I’m unsure). One chart from 2025 has become perhaps the most (in)famous in modern AI commentary. For those in the know, ‘ the METR graph ’ [1] is unusually compellin

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